Electric car battery lifter

27-11-2022

Under the COVID-19, the introduction and implementation of national policies were delayed for 60 to 120 days this year, which led to the lag in the production of clean energy power generation projects. This year, the installed capacity of new renewable energy power generation in the world dropped by 10% year on year, but in 2021, new energy will return to the upward trend.

The cost of solar energy, wind energy and lithium-ion battery technologies has dropped by more than 80% in the past decade, and the lowest cost and annual new installed capacity are constantly breaking new records. In many areas, photovoltaic and wind power are increasingly becoming the lowest cost power sources. Although renewable energy subsidies continue to decrease, the growth of global renewable energy power generation will still exceed the growth of power demand in 2019. Four fifths of the power generation costs of solar photovoltaic and wind energy projects put into operation in 2020 will be lower than that of fossil fuel power generation, and the global renewable energy will generally have economic competitive advantages in the next 10 years.

The competitiveness of coal power generation continues to decline. In 2019, four fifths of the coal-fired power plants in EU countries will be in a loss state, and 70% of the coal-fired power plants in Western European countries are expected to be eliminated in the next five years. In major global markets, the cost of new renewable energy projects is lower than that of new coal power projects, and the operating cost of more than half of the existing coal power assets in the world is higher than that of new renewable energy projects.

Green power has also become a priority for enterprises and society. More than 200 enterprises with global influence have made a commitment to 100% renewable energy consumption. For example, the "100% Renewable Energy Initiative" (RE100), which combines Apple, Google, Facebook, Coca Cola, Microsoft, Philips, Goldman Sachs and other globally influential enterprises, promises to ensure 100% use of renewable energy power, including outsourcing or self production.

Electric power will become the core energy carrier of the future energy system. The transformation of efficient electrification technology will also bring about the improvement of energy efficiency. The efficiency of electric vehicles is 2-3 times that of fuel vehicles, and the efficiency of heat pumps is 2-4 times that of traditional heating systems. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that the number of electric vehicles will increase from about 8 million in 2019 to more than 1.1 billion in 2050, the number of heat pumps installed in 2050 will increase 10 times compared with 2019, the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption will increase from 20% in 2019 to nearly 50% in 2050, and the global total power consumption will more than double. To this end, more than 520 million kilowatts of renewable energy power generation capacity needs to be built every year. By 2030, the proportion of renewable energy power generation needs to rise from 26% to 57%, and to 86% by 2050.

The energy transformation in the construction, transportation and industrial sectors is a big challenge, which requires the development of integrated energy efficiency, electrification and the use of renewable energy. For example, Germany's original goal was to reduce terminal energy consumption in the transport sector by 10% by 2020 compared with 2005, but now it has increased by 4.3% compared with 2005, highlighting the huge challenges of the transformation of the transport sector.

Hydrogen energy can provide solutions for achieving the near zero carbon goal in the long term. At present, almost all hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. Green hydrogen production is mainly produced by electrolysis of water with renewable energy electricity. As the cost of solar photovoltaic and wind energy is rapidly declining, the cost of green hydrogen is rapidly declining. In 2020, the world's largest (10 MW) green hydrogen production plant will be put into operation in Japan. It is estimated by international renewable energy that by 2050, the green hydrogen production and consumption in the "transition energy scenario" will reach 5% of the current global energy demand.

Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires a global effort to promote green and low-carbon transformation. Although the Trump Administration of the United States has started the process of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, many states in the United States will still actively respond to climate change, and it is unlikely that the global climate change action will be overturned. In 2019, Europe adopted the European Green Deal. Member States approved the EU's goal of achieving greenhouse gas neutralization by 2050, and set a new goal of reducing emissions by 50% - 55% in 2030 compared with 1990 (the original goal was 40%). The report Global Renewable Energy Outlook: Energy Transition 2050 released by the International Renewable Energy Agency in April 2020 pointed out that renewable energy, energy efficiency and electrification are the key ways for countries to reduce emissions on a large scale. According to the "Transitional Energy Scenario", the share of renewable energy in terminal energy consumption should increase to 28% by 2030 and 66% by 2050. By 2050, global energy related CO2 emissions will be reduced by 70%, of which more than 90% will come from renewable energy, energy efficiency and electrification measures.

Germany takes the lead in renewable energy development and energy transformation. In the past 30 years, the proportion of renewable energy in primary energy has increased from 1.3% to 15%, and the proportion of renewable energy power generation has increased from 3.6% to 40.1%, which will start to enter the market. According to the German energy transformation goal, the proportion of renewable energy power generation will reach 65% by 2030.

Although the Trump government of the United States proposed to revitalize fossil energy such as coal, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Washington, D.C. and other states have set the goal of 100% renewable energy power around 2045.

China fully implements the concept of new energy development, adheres to green development and promotes the energy revolution. In 2019, China's renewable energy power generation accounted for 27.9% of the total power generation, of which wind power and solar power generation accounted for 10%. The installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower and other power generation ranked first in the world. Chinese new energy enterprises and industries also play an important role in expanding the global renewable energy market and ensuring the global supply chain. In 2019, the world added 115 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity. Although China's new capacity decreased year on year, it still ranked first in the world with a capacity of 30 million kilowatts. The overseas PV market has increased to 84.9 million kilowatts, an increase of 44%, which is also largely due to the rapid decline in the cost of PV modules manufactured in China. In 2019, the top five global PV module shipments were all Chinese enterprises. In 2019, the world's new wind power installed capacity exceeded 63 million kilowatts, creating a new record. Offshore wind power is also playing an increasingly important role. European enterprises (Vestas and Siemens Gomesa) rank in the top two by virtue of their global strategic layout, but there are eight Chinese enterprises among the top 15 wind turbine manufacturers in the world, and they are expanding the pace of globalization. The COVID-19 has impacted the global supply chain, making enterprises and industrial systems that can provide overall solutions more competitive.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that under the COVID-19, the introduction and implementation of policies in various countries were delayed for 60~120 days this year, which led to the lag in the production of clean energy power generation projects, leading to a 10% year-on-year decline in the installed capacity of new renewable energy power generation in the world this year. However, in 2021, new energy will return to an upward trend. The main challenges are policy uncertainty and the resulting market and financing challenges, so policy stability is crucial. IRENA research shows that by 2050, the total investment in the energy system in the "transition energy scenario" needs to reach 110 trillion dollars, and more than 80% of the funds should be invested in renewable energy, energy efficiency improvement, electrification of terminal energy use, and grid construction and flexibility improvement. If calculated on an annual basis, the annual investment level should reach about 3.2 trillion US dollars. In contrast, the average annual investment during 2014-2018 was about 1.8 trillion US dollars.


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